This document was prepared as part of a large-scale evaluation
of Connecticut's Jobs First welfare reform initiative. Implemented
statewide in 1996, Jobs First includes a 21-month time limit
on cash assistance receipt, generous financial work incentives,
and other features. Its primary goal is to reduce welfare
use and increase self-sufficiency through work. The Jobs First
evaluation is being conducted by the Manpower Demonstration
Research Corporation (MDRC), a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization,
under a contract with the Connecticut Department of Social
Services (DSS).
To facilitate the evaluation, between January
1996 and February 1997, several thousand welfare applicants
and recipients in two DSS offices (Manchester and New Haven)
were assigned, at random, to one of two groups: the Jobs First
group, which is subject to the welfare reforms, or the Aid
to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) group, which is
subject to the prior welfare rules. The two groups are being
tracked over time, and any differences that emerge between
them - for example, in employment rates or welfare payment
amounts - can reliably be attributed to Jobs First because
there were no systematic differences between the groups' members
when they entered the study, and because both groups have
experienced the same general economic and social conditions.
Such differences are known as the program's effects or impacts.
In early 2000, MDRC completed a comprehensive
interim report on Jobs First, including data on the program's
implementation and estimates of its impacts on employment,
public assistance receipt, income, and other outcomes, in
the two years after people were assigned to the two groups.[1]
This report updates the impact estimates through three years
of follow-up. Key findings include:
- Jobs First continues to have a positive
impact on employment. The Jobs First group had higher employment
rates and higher average earnings than the AFDC group in
the first two years of the follow-up period, and this trend
continued in Year 3. However, it appears that the program's
impact on employment began to fade in Year 3, and its impact
on average earnings disappeared by the end of that year.
- Jobs First generated substantial reductions
in cash assistance receipt and payments in Year 3. Though
Jobs First initially increased cash assistance payments
due to its generous financial work incentive (a rule that
allowed many people to retain their welfare grants after
going to work), the pattern reversed when Jobs First group
members began to reach the 21-month time limit near the
end of the second year of follow-up. In Year 3, Jobs First
reduced cash assistance receipt by 21 percent and reduced
average cash assistance payments by 19 percent.
- The Jobs First and AFDC groups had
about the same average income in Year 3 although, consistent
with the program's goals, the Jobs First group derived a
greater proportion of its income from earnings. Jobs First
substantially raised family income in the period before
people began reaching the time limit; the financial work
incentive allowed many people to supplement their earnings
with welfare grants. The pattern changed abruptly when people
began reaching the time limit and, in Year 3, reductions
in cash assistance and Food Stamps almost entirely offset
increases in earnings, leaving the two groups with about
the same income. In addition, a small group of families
appeared to be losing income as a result of the program.
However, it is important to note that the overall pattern
of Year 3 results was consistent with the program's primary
goal of increasing work and reducing reliance on welfare.
- The most impressive employment gains
continue to be experienced by the most disadvantaged subgroup.
In Year 3, Jobs First increased employment by 12 percentage
points and earnings by 40 percent among those who entered
Jobs First as long-term welfare recipients with no high
school diploma and no recent work history. However, due
to growing declines in AFDC/TFA benefits (presumably as
the most disadvantaged sample members began to reach the
time limit in larger numbers), early increases in total
income for this subgroup disappeared in Year 3. In sharp
contrast, sample members who were least disadvantaged seemed
to experience little benefit from Jobs First.
- Only a small fraction of the Jobs First
group received benefits continuously through the three years,
and many of those who did worked while on welfare. Although
many of the recipients who reach Jobs First's time limit
are granted extensions, only about 6 percent of the Jobs
First group received 35 or 36 countable months of cash assistance
during the three-year study period (in other words, they
received welfare more or less continuously and were not
granted exemptions that stopped their time-limit clocks).
When compared with other Jobs First group members, the continuous
recipients were less likely to have a high school diploma,
had longer histories of welfare receipt before entering
Jobs First, and had more children. There were also much
more likely to be African-American and to live in public
or subsidized housing. Many of these individuals worked
a substantial amount during the follow-up period, although
their earnings were low. If this group is of concern, especially
as the 60-month federal time limit approaches, DSS and its
employment services partners will probably need to target
them for special intensive services.
For the most part, the updated findings
show a continuation of trends apparent at the end of the follow-up
period for the interim report. However, more definitive evidence
about the long term effects of Jobs First will have to wait
for the final report, scheduled for late 2001. The final report
will follow the groups for four years, present the results
of a survey of about 2,400 Jobs First and AFDC group members,
and examine Jobs First's impacts on the children of participants.
Because there are still several critical open questions, and
because the final report will be available relatively soon,
it would seem prudent to delay making major changes in Jobs
First until the final results of the study are known.
[1]
Dan Bloom, Laura Melton, Charles Michalopoulos, Susan Scrivener,
and Johanna Walter. 2000. Jobs First: Implementation and Early
Impacts of Connecticut's Welfare Reform Initiative. New York:
MDRC.
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