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Chairman Brownback, Senator Lautenberg, and Members of the Subcommittee:
My name is Gordon Berlin. I am the executive vice president of MDRC, a unique
nonpartisan social policy research and demonstration organization dedicated
to learning what works to improve the well-being of disadvantaged families.
We strive to achieve this mission by conducting real world field tests of new
policy and program ideas using the most rigorous methods possible to assess
their effectiveness.
I am honored to be invited to address your committee about what we know and
do not know about the effects of marriage and divorce on families and children
and about what policies and programs might work to promote and strengthen healthy
marriages, especially among the poor. My goal is to briefly summarize the evidence
in three areas: (1) what we know about the effects of marriage, divorce, and
single parenthood on children; (2) what we know about the effectiveness of policies
and programs that seek to stem persistently high rates of divorce and out-of-wedlock
childbearing; and (3) what we know about the likely effects of these policies
on low-income families and children. The central focus of my remarks will be
to explicate the role that marital education, family counseling, and related
services might play in promoting and strengthening healthy marriages and to
discuss what we know about the potential of strategies that seek to ameliorate
the key stressors (for example, job loss, lack of income, domestic violence,
and childbearing) that make it difficult to form marriages in the first place
or act as a catalyst that eventually breaks up existing marriages.
To summarize my conclusions:
- First, children who grow up in an intact, two-parent family with both biological
parents present do better on a wide range of outcomes than children who grow
up in a single-parent family. Single parenthood is not the only, nor even
the most important, cause of the higher rates of school dropout, teenage pregnancy,
juvenile delinquency, or other negative outcomes we see; but it does contribute
independently to these problems. Neither does single parenthood guarantee
that children will not succeed; many, if not most, children who grow up in
a single-parent household do succeed.
- Second, an emerging body of evidence suggests that marital education, family
counseling, and related services can improve middle-class couples' communication
and problem-solving skills, resulting initially in greater marital satisfaction
and, in some cases, reduced divorce, although these effects appear to fade
over time.
- Third, we do not know whether these same marital education services would
be effective in reducing marital stress and eventual divorce among low-income
populations or in promoting marriage among the unmarried. Low-income populations
confront a wide range of stressors that middle-class families do not. The
evidence is limited, and mixed, on whether strategies designed to overcome
these stressors, for example, by providing job search assistance or by supplementing
low earnings, rather than relying solely on teaching marital communication
and problem-solving skills would also increase the likelihood that low-income
couples would marry or that married couples would stay together.
- Fourth, to find out whether and what types of policies and programs might
successfully strengthen marriage as an institution among low-income populations
as well as among a wide variety of ethnically and culturally diverse populations,
our national focus should be on the design, implementation, and rigorous evaluation
of these initiatives.
Marriage, Divorce, and Single Parenthood
Encouraging and supporting healthy marriages is a cornerstone of the Bush Administration's
proposed policies for addressing the poverty-related woes of single-parent households
and, importantly, for improving the well-being of low-income children. The rationale
is reasonably straightforward: About a third of all children born in the United
States each year are born out of wedlock. Similarly, about half of all first
marriages end in divorce, and when children are involved, many of the resulting
single-parent households are poor. For example, less than 10 percent of married
couples with children are poor as compared with about 35 to 40 percent of single-mother
families. The combination of an alarmingly high proportion of all new births
occurring out of wedlock and discouragingly high divorce rates among families
with children ensures that the majority of America's children will spend a significant
amount of their childhood in single-parent households. Moreover, research shows
that even after one controls for a range of family background differences, children
who grow up living in an intact household with both biological parents present
seem to do better, on average, on a wide range of social indicators than do
children who grow up in a single-parent household (McLanahan and Sandefur, 1994).
For example, they are less likely to drop out of school, become a teen parent,
be arrested, and be unemployed. While single parenthood is not the main nor
the sole cause of children's increased likelihood of engaging in one of these
detrimental behaviors, it is one contributing factor. Put another way, equalizing
income and opportunity do improve the life outcomes of children growing up in
single-parent households, but children raised in two-parent families still have
an advantage.
If the failure of parents to marry and persistently high rates of divorce are
behind the high percentage of children who grow up in a single-parent family,
can and should policy attempt to reverse these trends? Since Daniel Patrick
Moynihan first lamented what he identified as the decline of the black family
in his 1965 report, The Negro Family: The Case for National Action, marriage
has been a controversial subject for social policy and scholarship. The initial
reaction to Moynihan was harsh; scholars argued vehemently that family structure
and, thus, father absence was not a determinant of child well-being. But then
in the 1980s, psychologists (Wallerstein and Kelly, 1980; Hetherington, 1982)
began producing evidence that divorce among middle-class families was harmful
to children. Renewed interest among sociologists and demographers (Furstenberg
and Cherlin, 1994) in the link between poverty and single parenthood soon emerged,
and as noted above, that work increasingly began building toward the conclusion
that family structure did matter (McLanahan and Sandefur, 1994). Of course,
the debate was not just about family structure and income differences; it was
also about race and gender. When Moynihan wrote in 1965, 24 percent of all births
among African-Americans occurred outside of marriage. Today, the black out-of-wedlock
birthrate is almost 70 percent, and the white rate has reached nearly 24 percent.
If single parenthood is a problem, that problem cuts across race and ethnicity.
But the story has nuance. Yes, growing up with two parents is better for children,
but only when both mother and father are the biological or intact
(as opposed to remarried) parents. In fact, there is some evidence that second
marriages can actually be harmful to adolescents. Moreover, marriage can help
children only if the marriage is a healthy one. While the definition of a healthy
marriage is itself subject to debate, it is typically characterized as
high in positive interaction, satisfaction, and stability and low in conflict.
Unhealthy marriages characterized by substantial parental conflict pose a clear
risk for child well-being, both because of the direct negative effects that
result when children witness conflict between parents, and because of conflict's
indirect effects on parenting skills. Marital hostility is associated with increased
aggression and disruptive behaviors on the part of children which, in turn,
seem to lead to peer rejection, academic failure, and other antisocial behaviors
(Cummings and Davies, 1994; Webster-Stratton, 2003).
While our collective hand-wringing about the number of American births that
occur out-of-wedlock is justified, what is often missed is that the birthrate
among unmarried women accounts for only part of the story. In fact, birthrates
among unmarried teens and African-Americans have been falling by a fourth
among unmarried African-American women since 1960, for example (Offner, 2001).
How, then, does one explain the fact that more and more of the nation's children
are being born out of wedlock? Because the nonmarital birth ratio is a function
of (1) the out-of-wedlock birthrate (births per 1,000 unmarried women), (2)
the marriage rate, and (3) the birthrate among married women (births per 1,000
married women) - the share of all children born out of wedlock has risen over
the last thirty years, in large measure, because women were increasingly delaying
marriage, creating an ever larger pool of unmarried women of childbearing age,
and because married women were having fewer children. Indeed, families acted
to maintain their standard of living in the face of stagnant and falling wages,
earnings, and incomes during the 1970s and 1980s by having fewer children and
sending both parents into the workforce, a strategy that undoubtedly has increased
the stress on low-income two-parent families (Levy, 1988), and that contributed
to the rise in out-of-wedlock births as a proportion of all births.
Concern about these trends in out-of-wedlock births and divorce, coupled with
the gnawing reality that child poverty is inextricably bound up with family
structure, has encouraged conservatives and some liberals to focus on marriage
as a solution. Proponents of this approach argued that many social policies
welfare and tax policy, for example were actually anti-marriage, even if
research only weakly demonstrated that the disincentives to marry embedded in
these policies actually affected behavior. Moreover, they maintained that social
policy should not be neutral it should encourage and support healthy
marriages and they stressed the link between child poverty and single
parenthood and the positive child effects associated with two-parent families.
The focus on marriage was met with skepticism by others. Critics argued that
marriage was not an appropriate province for government intervention and that
income and opportunity structures were much more important factors than family
structure. They questioned why the focus was on low-income families when the
normative changes underlying the growth in single-parent households permeated
throughout society, as witnessed by the prevalence of divorce across all economic
classes.
Fragile Families Are Pro-Marriage
More recent evidence from the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study tipped
the balance for many in favor of the pro-marriage arguments. Designed by two
prominent academics, Sara McLanahan and Irv Garfinkel, the study is a longitudinal
survey of 5,000 low-income married and nonmarried parents conducted in 75 hospitals
in twenty cities at the time of their child's birth. Among mothers who were
not married when their child was born, 83 percent reported that they were romantically
involved with the father, and half of the parents were living together. Nearly
all of the romantically involved couples expressed interest in developing long-term
stable relationships, and there was universal interest in marriage, with most
indicating that there was at least a fifty-fifty chance that they would marry
in the future. Looking at employment history and other factors, researchers
estimated that about a third of the couples had high potential to marry; another
third had some problems, like lack of a job, that could be remedied; while the
final third were not good candidates due to a history of violence, incarceration,
and the like (McLanahan, Garfinkel, and Mincy, 2001).
There was certainly reason to be cautious about presuming a link between what
people said and what they might actually do, and longer follow-up data did indeed
throw some cold water on initial optimism. However, when the Fragile Families
data were thrown into the mix with the trend data and with the data that suggested
that family structure was a determinant of poverty, the reaction was catalytic.
The notion was reinforced that more marriage and less child poverty would result
if public policies could just be brought in line with the expressed interests
of low-income couples.
Marital Education Can Work
But what, if anything, could government actually do to promote marriage among
low-income families? For some policy analysts, the discovery of marriage education
programs seemed to provide the missing link. To the surprise of many, not only
did these programs exist, but there was a body of evidence, including more than
a dozen randomized trials, indicating that marriage education programs could
be effective. Marriage education refers to services that help couples who are
married or planning to marry to strengthen their communication and problem-solving
skills and thus their relationships. Models range from those that adopt a skills-based
instructional approach to those that use a therapeutic hands on
approach that addresses the specific marital problems facing individual couples.
Some of the cutting-edge work now underway provides a flavor of the approaches
being developed. Dr. Phil Cowan and Dr. Carolyn Cowan, both professors of psychology
at the University of California, Berkeley, have been involved in the development
and rigorous testing of family instruction models for more than twenty years.
Dr. Benjamin Karney, a psychologist at the University of Florida, has been conducting
a longitudinal study of newly married couples. Dr. Richard Heyman, a psychologist
at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, has 15 years experience
conducting prevention and treatment research on couple and family interaction.
Dr. John Gottman, who leads the Relationship Research Institute where he focuses
on marriage, family, and child development, has developed and carefully evaluated
some of the most innovative new approaches to marital education and group instruction.
Dr. Pamela Jordan developed the Becoming Parents Program, a couple-focused educational
research program being tested in a large randomized trial. Dr. Howard J. Markman
and Dr. Scott Stanley, both of the University of Denver, developed and refined
the Preparation and Relationship Enhancement Program (PREP).
Among the skills-training programs, PREP is the most widely used with couples
who are about to marry. It teaches skills such as active listening and self-regulation
of emotions for conflict management and positive communication. PREP also includes
substantial content on topics such as commitment, forgiveness, and expectations
clarification. PREP appears to have a significant effect on marital satisfaction
initially, but the effect appears to fade over time (Gottman, 1979), and there
is some indication that it improves communication among high-risk couples but
not low-risk couples (Halford, Sanders, and Behrens, 2001). Therapeutic interventions
are more open-ended and involve group discussions, usually guided by trained
professionals to help partners identify and work through the marriage problems
they are facing. The most carefully evaluated of the structured group discussion
models targeted couples around the time of their child's birth, an event that
triggers substantial and sustained decline in marital satisfaction. Couples
meet in a group with a trained therapist over a six-month period that begins
before the child is born and continues for another three months after the birth.
Initially, marital satisfaction soared and divorce rates plummeted relative
to a similar group of families that did not participate in the program. But
the divorce effects waned by the five-year follow-up point, even while marital
satisfaction remained high for those couples who stayed together (Schultz and
Cowan, 2001). More recent work by Cowan and Cowan and by John Gottman appears
to produce more promising results.
Both the Cowans model of education via structured group discussions and
a marital-education and skills-development model pioneered by John Gottman led
to positive effects on children. The Cowans found positive effects in the school
performance of children whose parents participated in their couples instruction
and group discussion program. Gottman describes improved cooperative interaction
between the parents and their infant child and sustained increased involvement
by fathers.
While the results from the marriage education programs are encouraging, they
are not definitive. Most of the studies are small, several have serious flaws,
and only a few have long-term follow-up data (and those that do seem to show
decay in effectiveness over time). Moreover, only a handful of the studies collected
information on child well-being. Most importantly, all of the programs studied
served mostly white, middle-class families, not the low-income and diverse populations
that would be included in a wider government initiative.
Context and Low-income Families
Not surprisingly, low-income couples have fewer resources to cope with life's
vagaries. They are more likely to experience job loss, have an unexpected health
or family crisis, be evicted from or burned out of their home, be the victim
of a violent crime, and so forth. As a result, they face greater difficulty
than middle-class individuals in forming and sustaining marriages. With the
exception of African-Americans, low-income couples are not less likely to marry;
but they are more likely to divorce when they do marry. Yet evidence from the
Fragile Families survey of 5,000 low-income couples who have just given birth
to a child and ethnographic interviews conducted with low-income women in Philadelphia
by Kathy Edin of Northwestern University provide convincing evidence that low-income
people share the same normative commitment to marriage that middle-class families
demonstrate. As Kathy Edin told the Senate Finance Committee last week, [T]he
poor already believe in marriage, profoundly so. The poor want to marry, but
they insist on marrying well. This
is the only way to avoid an almost certain
divorce.
If poor families share the same commitment to marriage as better-off couples,
what is it about their low-income status that inhibits the formation of stable
marriages? One possible explanation is the mismatch between a large number of
stressful events they face and few resources with which to respond to those
stressors. The imbalance places greater demands on the individuals in a dyad,
leaving less time together and less time to dedicate to relationship building
than might be the case for a middle-class couple. In addition, the problems
low-income couples have to manage problems such as substance abuse, job loss,
eviction, chronic infidelity, a child with a chronic condition like asthma or
developmental delays, and criminal activities may be more severe than those
confronted by better-off couples. (Edin, 2004; Karney, Story, and Bradbury,
2003; Heyman, 2000).
Because the problems low-income couples confront are likely to be more acute
and chronic than those faced by middle-class couples, it is an open question
whether the problem-solving and communication skills taught by marital education
programs will be as effective among low-income couples as they appear to have
been for middle-class couples (where the evidence base is still evolving). Clearly,
the skill sets taught in those programs and the strategies applied by therapists
and counselors to solve the problems couples present will need to be adapted.
Moreover, it is possible that these kinds of stressors overwhelm the abilities
of individuals to use the skills they are taught. It is difficult to be understanding
of a partner's failings when the rent is due and there is not enough money to
pay it.
Such concerns have elicited two kinds of responses: first, efforts to adapt
marital education programs to better meet the needs of low-income families;
and second, proposals to combine marital education with strategies that would
directly tackle the poverty-related stressors on family life for example,
with help in finding a job, income supplements to make up for low wages, child
care assistance, and medical coverage.
Adapting Marital Education to the Needs of Low-Income Families
Underpinning the interest in public support for marital education programs
is a conviction that low-income individuals do not have good information about
the benefits of marriage. In part, this dearth results from their experience
of having grown up in single-parent households where they were simply not exposed
to role models that might inform their own relationships. In part, it is a consequence
of their lack of access to the same kinds of supports and information, counseling,
and therapy that are often available to middle-class couples contemplating marriage
or divorce. Buoyed by the success of the model marriage education programs with
middle-class families, and following the lead of former Oklahoma Governor Frank
Keating, who was determined to end his state's embarrassing status as the nation's
divorce capital, practitioners of marital education programs have begun applying
and adapting these models to the needs of low-income couples. The objective
is to equip low-income couples with relationship skills to improve couple interaction
by reducing negative exchanges (anger, criticism, contempt, and blaming) and
strengthening positive behaviors (expressions of support, humor, empathy, and
affection). The logic is obvious: When couples enjoy positive interaction and
are successful in handling conflict, their confidence and commitment would be
reinforced, thereby fostering satisfaction and stability. But the designers
of these programs recognize that they must adapt marital education as middle-class
families know it to better meet the different needs of low-income households.
This might involve changes in the types of agencies that deliver services, the
training leaders would get, the content and examples used in the training, the
duration and intensity of services, and the balance between strengthening internal
communication and the forging of links to community programs that can provide
support related to the contexts in which poor families live.
Does Reducing Financial Stress Promote Marital Stability?
While there is a strong relationship between poverty and marital breakup, would
programs that ameliorate poverty by providing supports to the working poor actually
improve marital relationships? There have been few tests of this question; the
most relevant recent reform that has been carefully evaluated for two-parent
families is the Minnesota Family Investment Program (MFIP). Implemented in 1994,
MFIP used the welfare system to make work pay by supplementing the earnings
of recipients who took jobs until their income reached 140 percent of the poverty
line, and it required nonworkers to participate in a range of employment, training,
and support services. For two-parent families, MFIP also eliminated the arcane
work-history requirements and the 100-hour rule, a policy that limited
the number of hours a primary earner could work and still receive welfare but
which had the perverse, unintended effect of encouraging couples to divorce
so they could remain eligible for welfare.
MDRC's evaluation of MFIP examined program effects on employment, income, marriage,
and other family outcomes up to three years after entry. Because MFIP treated
two-parent family recipients (who were receiving welfare at the onset of the
study) and new applicants differently, outcomes for these groups were examined
separately. We found that two-parent recipient families in MFIP were as likely
as those in a comparable group of welfare recipients who were not eligible for
MFIP to have at least one parent work; but the MFIP sample was less likely to
have both parents work, leading to an overall reduction in their combined earnings
of approximately $500 per quarter. Yet because the program supplemented the
earnings of participating families, the two-parent recipient families
who participated in MFIP still had slightly higher family incomes (up $190 per
quarter more, on average, when taking into account their decreased likelihood
of separating or divorcing and, thus, retaining access to both partners'
earnings). In contrast, MFIP had fewer effects on parental employment, earnings,
and income for welfare applicants, a finding that is not entirely surprising
given their short welfare spells.
One of the striking findings of the three-year evaluation was that, among the
290 two-parent recipient families who were part of a follow-up survey sample,
families in the MFIP group were 19.1 percentage points more likely than families
in the group who received traditional welfare payments under the Aid for Families
with Dependent Children (AFDC) program to report being married and living with
their spouse. Most of this increase in marital stability was a result of fewer
reported separations in MFIP families as compared to AFDC families, although
some of it was a result of small reductions in divorce. Because there is some
question about how families on welfare might report their marital status, MDRC
also obtained and analyzed data from publicly available divorce records. We
did this for some 188 two-parent recipient families who were married at study
entry. (The other 100 or so families in the original survey sample were cohabiting,
and we did not look for marriage records for them). The data confirmed that
these couples were 7 percentage points less likely than their AFDC counterparts
to divorce. This gave us confidence that MFIP did indeed reduce marital instability.
(Again, divorce records would not tell us about the separations we found in
the survey, so the effect should be smaller than the 19 percentage point effect
we found there).
These findings have two important implications. First, make-work-pay strategies
might reduce financial stress and increase the likelihood that two-parent families
stay together. Second, given the small number of people followed in the MFIP
survey sample, MFIP's marriage effects on all two-parent families should be
investigated and the results should be replicated in other locations before
the findings are used to make policy.
As a first step in that process, MDRC went back to the state of Minnesota to
obtain divorce and marriage records for the full sample of 2,200 two-parent
MFIP families (including both recipients and applicants) for a follow-up period
of more than six years. This fuller record would give us the opportunity to
understand whether the positive effects on divorce (but not the much larger
effects on separation) we found for the 290 two-parent families in the survey
sample applied to the larger group of two-parent MFIP families. In addition,
we wanted to learn about MFIP's possible effect on subgroups of two-parent families
that we could not previously examine.
Six years later, the full-sample story on divorce is decidedly mixed. Overall,
for the full sample of two-parent families, there is no discernable pattern
of effects on divorce over time. When we look at the two-parent recipient
families only, those eligible for the MFIP program appear to be less likely
to get divorced, but the finding is not statistically significant until the
last year of follow-up, leaving open the possibility that the pattern we see
could still be due to chance. Moreover, the pattern among applicants
is also uncertain barely statistically significant in one year, but favoring
more rather than less divorce. The different direction in the findings for the
recipient and applicant groups explains the absence of an overall effect on
divorce. And in both cases, the effects we did see were small about a
3 to 4 percentage point difference in divorce between the MFIP group and the
AFDC group. Finally, recall that public marriage and divorce records can capture
only a family's legally documented marital status. They cannot distinguish informal
statuses like separations, the form of marital dissolution that drove the dramatic
36-month recipient findings mentioned above. We are currently planning further
analyses to better understand MFIP's effects on divorce for these and other
subgroups. We have no reliable way of exploring the separation findings.
MFIP's initial results were tantalizing in large part because MFIP was not
specifically targeted to affect marriage, divorce, or separations, and yet it
appeared to produce large effects on the likelihood that some two-parent families
would stay together, suggesting that strategies that tackle the vagaries of
poverty could promote marital stability by reducing some of the economic stress
on poor families. But the full-sample findings cast some doubt on that promise
(with regard to divorce but not separations), reinforcing the need to replicate
programs like MFIP for two-parent families in different settings before reaching
conclusions about the contribution such strategies might make toward strengthening
marriage. The findings particularly leave open the question of the possible
range of effects that programs could achieve if policies providing marital education
were combined with policies designed to affect employment and income.
What We Don't Know
While the evidence base on marital education is extensive, there is much left
to learn. For example:
- Will participation in marital education programs by low-income couples lead
to an increase in marriage and in marital harmony and, in turn, have lasting
effects on couples' satisfaction, on parenting skills and practices, and on
children?
- Will the skills taught in marital education programs be a match for the
poverty-related stresses experienced by low-income families, or are additional
supports such as employment and income also needed to reduce divorce and increase
the number of healthy marriages?
- Will marriage education programs be effective regardless of race, ethnic
identity, and cultural norms, and how should these programs be adapted to
better meet different groups' divergent needs?
- Who will participate in marital education programs? Will they attract predominantly
couples who already have a deep commitment to each other or couples whose
problems are acute? Will a broad cross-section of low-income couples participate
or only a narrow slice of the population?
- Will these programs facilitate the dissolution of unhealthy marriages as
proponents contend, or will they prolong marriages that might be better off
dissolving or not forming in the first place?
- Can a relatively short education course say, 10 to 20 hours spread over
a few months have a long-lasting effect on marital and couple discord, or
are more long-term strategies and even one-on-one back-up couple-counseling
services necessary? What is the right duration and intensity of an initiative?
Can courses be short term and intense, or must they be longer and more sustained
to yield longer-lasting effects? What is the right content? What are the implications
for affordability and scale?
An Opportunity to Learn
On substantive, policy, and financial grounds, there are good arguments to
be made for public involvement in the marriage field. If marital education programs
could be mounted at scale, if participation rates among those eligible were
high, and if the programs were effective in encouraging and sustaining healthy
two-parent families, the effects on children could be important. The key word
is if!
The strong correlation between growing up in a two-parent family and improved
child outcomes does not ensure that intervening to encourage more marriage and
less divorce will have the intended results. Indeed, social policymaking based
on correlation has an uncanny way of ending with unintended consequences. The
only reliable way to understand whether marital education and other supports
designed to strengthen marriage produces such results is to conduct a social
experiment with the right mix of quantitative and qualitative methods to answer
the what difference, how, and why questions.
The Administration of Children and Families within the U.S. Department of Health
and Human Services has launched two new projects to do just that. Managed by
Mathematica Policy Research, the Building Strong Families evaluation is targeted
to low-income unwed couples beginning around the time of their child's birth.
The Supporting Healthy Marriage initiative, which is being overseen by MDRC,
is aimed at low-income married couples. Both projects will involve large-scale,
multisite, rigorous random assignment tests of marriage-skills programs for
low-income couples. The goal is to measure the effectiveness of programs that
provide instruction and support to improve relationship skills. Some programs
might also include services to help low-income couples address barriers to healthy
marriages, such as poor parenting skills or problems with employment, health,
or substance abuse. Programs operated under these demonstration umbrellas will
screen for domestic violence and help participants gain access to appropriate
services. Done well, the results from these path-breaking projects should inform
the marriage field, and they should add value to our existing understanding
of the potential and the pitfalls of government intervention in this critically
important arena.
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